In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Danning S., Research Director at Pantera Capital. We discuss prediction markets from first principles including -- category segmentation, who the users are and how they behave, MEV in crypto markets, oracle resolution mechanisms, and the power of distribution.
In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Danning S., Research Director at Pantera Capital. We discuss prediction markets from first principles including -- category segmentation, who the users are and how they behave, MEV in crypto markets, oracle resolution mechanisms, and the power of distribution.
(00:00) - Nerding out on data
(02:26) - Prediction markets high level view
(04:18) - Polymaket US & International
(06:14) - Filtering the Data
(08:02) - Prediction market segmentation
(09:08) - Turnover reveals market attributes
(12:40) - MEV on Prediction markets
(18:42) - Adversarial taker bots
(23:01) - User does not equal wallet
(26:28) - Growing prediction market user base
(29:59) - Why are trading bots losing money?
(31:52) - Culture markets and oracle design
(42:20) - Permissionless prediction markets
(46:23) - Insider trading
(47:15) - High hanging fruit and innovation
(49:56) - The super app thesis
(52:01) - Does onchain matter?
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Danning's Research
1. Flashboys or Superforecasters - A deep dive into Polymarket’s venue growth, user portraits and market structures: https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/2026-h1-report-flash-boys-or-superforecasters/
2. Flashboys or Superforecasters; SBC Presentation at MEV Workshop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85j-lQ04T_c
3. Contact Danning on X: https://x.com/sui414